According to Australian Bureau of Statistics projections our Indigenous population is expected to reach somewhere between 713,300 and 721,100 people in 2021. This is a growth rate of 2.2% from 2006 to 2021. It could be nearly double what the total Australian growth rate is expected to be (1.2% – 1.7%).

On June 30 2006 the estimated Indigenous population of Australia was 517,200 (2.5% of the total population). New South Wales (148,200) and Queensland (146,400) had the largest Indigenous populations. The Northern Territory with 66,600 Indigenous Australians was fourth after western Australia (77900).

The Indigenous population increased by 13% (58700) from 2001 to 2006. Western Australia with an 18% increase had the largest rise in Indigenous population, closely followed by the Northern Territory (17%) and Queensland (16%).

This high growth rate will be driven by an increase in births due to larger numbers of Indigenous women entering ‘peak’ child bearing ages. The number of Indigenous children aged 0-14yrs will be up to 243,400 in 2021 (194,200 in 2006). Despite this big increase the numbers of children will drop from 38% of the indigenous population down to 34% in 2021. By comparison in 2008 the percentage of children aged 0-14 years was 19.3%.

Indigenous Children make up 38% of the indigenous population. In the whole of Australia children make up only 19.3% of the population.

However this is only an estimate. In their calculations it would be impossible to include an improvement in childhood mortality rate that hopefully will occur with the Close The Gap campaign. The current mortality rate in Indigenous children is 12.5 per 1,000 live births. The non-Indigenous rate is only 4.3 per thousand. If this is improved over the next 10 years it will substantially increase these figures.

The number of elderly Indigenous Australians (55 and over) will possibly reach 86,600. This is more than double the 40,000 elderly Indigenous people around in 2006.

Only 8% of the indigenous population is over 55 years of age. 13.3% of the total Australian population is 65 years or over.

By 2021 the percentage of elderly indigenous people will increase to nearly 12% of the indigenous population by 2021.

If we assume this population growth to be even across Indigenous Australia in remote Australia the total increase in child numbers will result in a small increase in children and services such as maternity, antenatal etc. As mentioned earlier, hopefully the life expectancy in kids will improve, boosting these numbers.

However it appears there will be a significant increase in the elderly from currently about 10,000 remote Indigenous Australians increasing to over 17000 people in 2021. This is going to place great strain on all services, from medical, nursing posts, chronic disease management, currently non-existent remote dialysis and in particular Aged Care Services and very rare remote Aged Care facilities so people can stay on country during their last years.

That will be one of the big challenges.

References:

3201.0 – Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories, Jun 2008
3238.0 – Experimental Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 1991 to 2021
Newborn and Child Survival in Australia Report; Save The Children Australia

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Tagged as: aboriginal, elderly, Indigenous, population, statistics

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